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The Minnesota Vikings sit at a crossroads, and it's the worst possible place for the franchise to be.
The team is good, but it's certainly not great. Yes, the Vikings won the NFC North last season with a 13-4 record. But the roster needs to be reworked after winning 11 games by one score, where significant variance exists from year to year.
Also, the organization's best young player isn't a quarterback; he's a wide receiver. Yet Minnesota must do everything in its power to retain Justin Jefferson for as long as possible and let him serve as the face of the franchise.
Basically, Minnesota is stuck in the middle. The Vikings are more likely to break bad in the short term than finally push their way into a Super Bowl appearance. In doing so, significant turnover is likely to occur, starting this offseason.
Sound the klaxon, because the purge has already begun.
On Friday, the Vikings released longtime wide receiver Adam Thielen. In nine seasons after signing as an undrafted free agent, the two-time Pro Bowl honoree caught 534 passes for 6,682 yards and 55 touchdowns. The move creates an extra $6.4 million salary-cap space, per the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Ben Goessling. Though the team will eat $13.6 million of his previous cap figure. Plus, his departure leaves a void as the offense's second-best receiving threat.
Former Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam ThielenMichael Reaves/Getty Images
Four days earlier, linebacker Eric Kendricks found himself on the chopping block. The 31-year-old defender led the team with a career-high 137 total tackles last season. In fact, he's led the Vikings in tackles seven of the last eight seasons. His departure cleared $9.5 million.
Za'Darius Smith may be the next to go. After finishing second on the team last season with 10 sacks, the veteran edge-defender asked for his release, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Smith even thanked his teammates and fans on Twitter, which basically signaled his goodbye after only one season. Rapoport added the Vikings have no intention of moving on from the three-time Pro Bowler but may be forced to do so.
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah received trade calls about running back Dalvin Cook, too, per SKOR North's Darren Wolfson (h/t Dov Kleiman). Even with the moves already made, the Vikings remain in the red before the new league year begins, per Spotrac. A potential Cook trade does save the team $7.9 million.
Eventually, safety Harrison Smith, 34, and linebacker Jordan Hicks, 31 in June, will be considered as deeper cuts.
At this particular juncture, the personnel moves make the situation feel like a soft reset, with the intention of a quick turnaround, starting with Jefferson's contract extension.
"The job is to build a championship team within the time window," Adofo-Mensah told reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine. "So yeah, if I get fired in four years and all my picks hit after that, I don't get to go back and say, 'Hey, look at all those people I drafted.' It's my job to put it all together within the same timeframe, same horizon."
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah speaks to reporters at the 2023 NFL combine. AP Photo/Darron Cummings
"So it's really just, a lot of different lessons that I've learned from various studies I've done to kind of put it together, but there isn't just one right way. It's just a lot of smart, intentional decisions that you make."
The end goal has to be Jefferson's retention. He's an exceptional talent as the NFL's reigning leader in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809). The 2020 first-round draft pick already posted the most receptions (324) and receiving yardage (4,825) in NFL history through his first three seasons. He even entered the rarefied air of Minnesota royalty when he surpassed Randy Moss this past season with the most yards ever by a Vikings receiver in a single season.
With three full campaigns under Jefferson's belt, he's entered the window to negotiate a contract extension for the first time. The deal will almost certainly reset the wide receiver market, with the biggest deals in overall value ($140 million) and average annual salary ($30 million) belonging to the Las Vegas Raiders' Davante Adams and Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill, respectively.
"I don't want to be the Vikings' GM without that guy on our team," Adofo-Mensah said. "So it's a high priority. We got to make sure that we do it in the order that we can do it in, obviously given all our other decisions we have to make."
The price will be exorbitant, and it will create a ripple effect throughout the entire roster. Based on the current market—which already ballooned last offseason—the 23-year-old Jefferson and his representation should ask for $150-160 million and surpass those already at the top.
While his re-signing remains the organization's primary priority, things will almost certainly change in the coming years.
Immediately, the Vikings' top free agents take a back seat. Defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson, center Garrett Bradbury, tight end Irv Smith Jr., running back Alexander Mattison, and cornerbacks Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson should have an opportunity to test the market and go elsewhere. Minnesota simply doesn't have the financial flexibility to bring the majority of them back.
Then, the organization will get stuck in the Kirk Cousins vortex once again. Cousins is a quality starter, but he's not among the league's very best. Yet he's good enough to lead a winning team and execute the offense as it is designed. Cousins has done a remarkable job leveraging teams into big contracts throughout his career. The Vikings will have a choice to make with 2023 being a contract year.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (left) and quarterback Kirk Cousins (right). David Berding/Getty Images
Should it continue forward with the 35-year-old quarterback the following season or finally move on to a cheaper, younger and more athletic option? Considering what the Vikings will be forced to pay Jefferson, Cousins' streak of outmaneuvering front offices should come to an end. The weight of the franchise will then be placed on Jefferson.
"It's not just having an elite player. I think people, maybe they appreciate the talent, maybe they don't. The human, it's even better seeing it up close every day," the general manager added. "He just wants to win. ... He's trying to put the Minnesota Vikings on his back. He wants to win a championship. When you have people like that in your building, you try everything you can to not let him out."
Whoever follows Cousins will do so knowing they have an elite target in his prime to alleviate pressure and provide instant credibility to the entire offense.
"As crazy as it sounds, leading the league in yards and receptions, I really think he and I have really just scratched the surface of where we want to go as an offense—and particularly with him as our premier receiver," head coach Kevin O'Connell said at the combine.
The Vikings may not know exactly which direction they're going as of yet, but the franchise does know that Jefferson will lead it there. In doing so, the squad will almost certainly look significantly different upon its arrival.
Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.
